WAS IT BULLSHIT?

A graveyard for confident predictions.

89 buried & graded bullshit
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AI will displace 85 million jobs by 2025.

~ World Economic Forum
2020 — 2025
AI ✝
💀

Robots will destroy 1.8 million jobs by 2020.

~ Gartner
2017 — 2020
AI ✝
💀

AI handles 85% of customer interactions by 2020.

~ Gartner
2017 — 2020
AI ✝
💀

70% of new enterprise apps will run on AI by 2025.

~ Gartner
2022 — 2025
AI ✝
💀

By 2025, 80% of firms will have abandoned generative AI.

~ Gartner
2024 — 2025
AI ✝
💀

Stop training radiologists — deep learning wins within five years.

~ Geoffrey Hinton
2016 — 2021
AI ✝
💀

AI will be smarter than the smartest human by 2025.

~ Elon Musk
2020 — 2025
AI ✝
💀

AI will be smarter than any human by the end of next year.

~ Elon Musk
2025 — 2026
AI ✝
💀

AI will take X million jobs by the end of THIS year.

~ Tech CEOs & op-eds
2023 — 2025
Rises again every year.
AI ✝
💀

LaMDA is sentient and wants to be acknowledged.

~ Blake Lemoine (Google)
2022 — 2022
AI ✝
💀

AI deepfakes will decide the 2024 election.

~ Election analysts & media
2023 — 2024
AI ✝
💀

Watson will out-diagnose doctors within five years.

~ IBM
2015 — 2020
AI ✝
💀

Neuralink enters human trials in 2022.

~ Elon Musk
2019 — 2022
AI ✝
💀

Optimus robots do useful factory work by end of 2023.

~ Elon Musk
2022 — 2023
AI ✝
💀

Sophia — a conscious, world-changing robot.

~ Hanson Robotics
2017 — 2017
AI ✝
💀

Coding is dead — everyone will just talk to computers.

~ Jensen Huang (NVIDIA)
2024 — 2024
AI ✝
💀

AGI is five years away.

~ AI conference circuit
2016 — 2025
Rises again every year.
AI ✝
💀

Level 4 autonomy everywhere by 2025.

~ Autonomous-driving industry
2018 — 2025
AI ✝
💀

AI will replace human creators by 2025.

~ Artists' unions
2023 — 2025
AI ✝
💀

By 2021, self-driving cars will be everywhere.

~ Auto & tech executives
2016 — 2021
Tech ✝
💀

Robo-taxis operating in major cities by 2020.

~ Tech & auto executives
2016 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Self-driving semis — no more truckers by 2022.

~ Autonomous trucking industry
2016 — 2022
Tech ✝
💀

Full self-driving coast-to-coast by end of 2017.

~ Elon Musk
2016 — 2017
Tech ✝
💀

One million robotaxis on the road by 2020.

~ Elon Musk
2019 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Flying taxis in Dallas and LA by 2023.

~ Uber Elevate
2017 — 2023
Tech ✝
💀

Flying cars in showrooms by 2020.

~ Flying-car startups
2017 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

A smart city rises on Toronto's waterfront by 2021.

~ Sidewalk Labs (Alphabet)
2017 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Stadia — console quality streaming, everywhere.

~ Google
2019 — 2023
Tech ✝
💀

Tesla Semi in production by 2019.

~ Tesla
2017 — 2019
Tech ✝
💀

VR becomes the next big computing platform by 2020.

~ VR industry (Oculus, HTC)
2016 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Voice assistants replace apps by 2020.

~ Voice-tech executives
2016 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Blockchain fixes supply chains and banking by 2020.

~ Enterprise blockchain pitch
2016 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Drone delivery in 30 minutes by 2020.

~ Amazon Prime Air
2016 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Robots will staff every factory by 2020.

~ Industry pundits
2016 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Optane memory changes computing forever.

~ Intel
2017 — 2022
Tech ✝
💀

A million-mile battery in every Tesla by 2020.

~ Tesla
2020 — 2020
Tech ✝
💀

Web3 takes over the internet by 2025.

~ Web3 venture hype
2021 — 2025
Tech ✝
💀

Mexico will pay for the wall.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Repeal and replace Obamacare — very quickly.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2018
Trump ✝
💀

COVID will disappear — like a miracle.

~ Donald Trump
2020 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

We have it very much under control.

~ Donald Trump
2020 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

A COVID vaccine before November 3.

~ Donald Trump
2020 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Open by Easter — back to normal.

~ Donald Trump
2020 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Obamacare is going to implode.

~ Donald Trump
2017 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Healthcare for everybody — better and cheaper.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2018
Trump ✝
💀

Infrastructure Week — a bill in two weeks.

~ Donald Trump
2017 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Sustained 4% GDP growth.

~ Donald Trump
2017 — 2019
Trump ✝
💀

Coal miners are going back to work.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

DACA is going to be taken care of.

~ Donald Trump
2017 — 2018
Trump ✝
💀

My tax returns — after the audit.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

The trade deficit will disappear.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Kim committed to denuclearization.

~ Donald Trump
2018 — 2019
Trump ✝
💀

A much better deal with Iran must be made.

~ Donald Trump
2018 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Maduro will be out soon.

~ Donald Trump
2017 — 2019
Trump ✝
💀

Drug prices will come tumbling down.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

We'll get along great with Russia.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2017
Trump ✝
💀

I alone can fix it.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

We'll have the national debt paid off.

~ Donald Trump
2016 — 2021
Trump ✝
💀

Tariffs — China pays, America wins.

~ Donald Trump
2018 — 2020
Trump ✝
💀

Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by the end of 2020.

~ John McAfee
2017 — 2020
Crypto ✝
💀

Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of 2021.

~ PlanB
2021 — 2021
Crypto ✝
💀

Bitcoin to $250,000 by 2022.

~ Tim Draper
2018 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

DOGE to $1 by end of 2021.

~ Meme-coin traders
2021 — 2021
Crypto ✝
💀

SHIB to a penny in 2021.

~ The Shiba Army
2021 — 2021
Crypto ✝
💀

ETH to $10,000 by the end of 2021.

~ Ethereum bulls
2021 — 2021
Crypto ✝
💀

UST and Luna — algorithmic money that can't fail.

~ Do Kwon (Terra)
2021 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

FTX is fine. Assets are fine.

~ Sam Bankman-Fried
2022 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

Celsius is safe — your money is safe.

~ Alex Mashinsky (Celsius)
2021 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

Our downside is protected — we have hedges.

~ Su Zhu & Kyle Davies (3AC)
2022 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

The Flippening — ETH passes Bitcoin.

~ Ethereum community
2017 — 2021
Crypto ✝
💀

Blue-chip NFTs only go up.

~ NFT influencers
2021 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

A crypto supercycle — $100k+ and beyond.

~ Michael Novogratz
2021 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

Fiat is doomed — crypto replaces it by 2025.

~ Bitcoin maxis
2021 — 2025
Crypto ✝
💀

Bitcoin at $100k — this is the year.

~ Crypto Twitter
2017 — 2025
Rises again every year.
Crypto ✝
💀

Volcano bonds raise $1B in 2022.

~ Nayib Bukele
2021 — 2022
Crypto ✝
💀

Ethereum 2.0 fully live by 2021.

~ Ethereum Foundation
2020 — 2021
Crypto ✝
💀

Bitconnect — guaranteed returns. Wow!

~ BitConnect (Carlos Matos)
2017 — 2018
Crypto ✝
💀

First humans on Mars by 2024.

~ Elon Musk
2016 — 2024
Space ✝
💀

Back to the Moon by 2024.

~ NASA / White House
2019 — 2024
Space ✝
💀

Starship reaches orbit in 2020.

~ Elon Musk
2019 — 2020
Space ✝
💀

Crew Dragon flies astronauts in 2018.

~ SpaceX
2015 — 2018
Space ✝
💀

Starliner will fly astronauts by 2018.

~ Boeing
2014 — 2018
Space ✝
💀

SLS — first flight in 2017.

~ NASA
2017 — 2017
Space ✝
💀

Virgin Galactic flying tourists by 2020.

~ Richard Branson
2016 — 2020
Space ✝
💀

New Shepard carries people by 2019.

~ Jeff Bezos
2016 — 2019
Space ✝
💀

Blue Moon — humans back by 2024.

~ Jeff Bezos
2019 — 2024
Space ✝
💀

DearMoon — civilian Moon flyby by 2023.

~ Yusaku Maezawa & SpaceX
2018 — 2023
Space ✝
💀

First Mars colonists depart in the 2020s.

~ Mars One
2013 — 2019
Space ✝
💀

A private Moon landing by 2017.

~ Google Lunar X Prize
2013 — 2017
Space ✝